Publication record · 18.cifr/2020.muhs.wildfire-risk-power

Wildfire Risk Mitigation: A Paradigm Shift in Power Systems Planning and Operation

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John W. Muhs (University of Utah), Masood Parvania (University of Utah), Mohammad Shahidehpour (Illinois Institute of Technology)

RAI18.cifr/2020.muhs.wildfire-risk-power

IEEE Open Access Journal of Power and Energy· 2020· doi:10.1109/OAJPE.2020.3030023

This paper presents a paradigm shift in power systems planning and operation by integrating wildfire risk into operational decision-making. A composite wildfire risk index is defined for transmission lines based on vegetation, weather, and topographic factors. A risk-constrained optimal power flow formulation is proposed that allows selective de-energization of high-risk lines to reduce wildfire ignition probability while minimizing load curtailment and operational cost.

wildfire riskpower systemsoptimal power flowline de-energizationpublic safety power shutoffrisk index

✦ Research context

What this agent contributes to the literature.

Problem solved

Grid operators lack a systematic method to weigh wildfire ignition risk against load curtailment and generation cost.
Ad-hoc PSPS decisions by utilities cause unnecessary outages without quantified risk-reduction guarantees.
No prior OPF formulation explicitly embedded wildfire risk as a constraint on transmission line energization status.

Novelty

Introduces a composite wildfire risk index for transmission lines using vegetation, weather, and topographic factors.

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sha256:ec7eecd0a310f4eb984db3f4861b7a8712e88f529c613016d67060e056b22b16

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input:application/json

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inputapplication/jsonoptional

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{
  "network": {
    "baseMVA": 100,
    "buses": [
      {
        "id": "B1",
        "pd": 0,
        "type": "slack"
      },
      {
        "id": "B2",
        "pd": 80,
        "type": "PQ"
      },
      {
        "id": "B3",
        "pd": 60,
        "type": "PQ"
      },
      {
        "id": "B4",
        "pd": 40,
        "type": "PQ"
      },
      {
        "id": "B5",
        "pd": 50,
        "type": "PQ"
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    ],
    "generators": [
      {
        "id": "G1",
        "bus": "B1",
        "pmin": 0,
        "pmax": 200,
        "cost": 20
      },
      {
        "id": "G2",
        "bus": "B3",
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        "cost": 35
      }
    ],
    "lines": [
      {
        "id": "L1",
        "from_bus": "B1",
        "to_bus": "B2",
        "x": 0.05,
        "capacity": 150,
        "wildfire_risk": 0.75,
        "vegetation": 0.8,
        "weather": 0.7,
        "topography": 0.6,
        "condition": 0.8
      },
      {
        "id": "L2",
        "from_bus": "B1",
        "to_bus": "B3",
        "x": 0.08,
        "capacity": 130,
        "wildfire_risk": 0.45,
        "vegetation": 0.4,
        "weather": 0.5,
        "topography": 0.4,
        "condition": 0.5
      },
      {
        "id": "L3",
        "from_bus": "B2",
        "to_bus": "B4",
        "x": 0.06,
        "capacity": 100,
        "wildfire_risk": 0.82,
        "vegetation": 0.9,
        "weather": 0.8,
        "topography": 0.7,
        "condition": 0.9
      },
      {
        "id": "L4",
        "from_bus": "B3",
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        "x": 0.07,
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        "wildfire_risk": 0.3,
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        "condition": 0.4
      },
      {
        "id": "L5",
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        "vegetation": 0.6,
        "weather": 0.7,
        "topography": 0.6,
        "condition": 0.7
      }
    ]
  },
  "scenarios": {
    "strategy": "threshold",
    "scenarios": [
      {
        "id": "S1",
        "description": "High wind event, northern corridor",
        "probability": 0.3,
        "affected_lines": [
          "L1",
          "L3"
        ],
        "risk_factor": 1.2
      },
      {
        "id": "S2",
        "description": "Moderate fire weather, southern corridor",
        "probability": 0.45,
        "affected_lines": [
          "L4",
          "L5"
        ],
        "risk_factor": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "S3",
        "description": "Extreme fire weather, all corridors",
        "probability": 0.15,
        "affected_lines": [
          "L1",
          "L2",
          "L3",
          "L5"
        ],
        "risk_factor": 1.5
      },
      {
        "id": "S4",
        "description": "No significant fire weather",
        "probability": 0.1,
        "affected_lines": [],
        "risk_factor": 0.5
      }
    ]
  }
}